* USD/JPY dips early on exporter selling* Extends losses as speculators target stops at 77.20, 77.00* Euro among best performers this week, up 1.7 pct vs USD* Aussie, NZD near 3-month peaks after USD post-Fed dipBy Antoni SlodkowskiTOKYO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The yen was on track to post its biggest daily gain in a month against the dollar on Friday, as exporters stepped up month-end purchases and hedge funds piled in, triggering stop losses, traders said.Japanese corporates sold the dollar which had been drifting lower after hitting a two-month high this week. This prompted hedge funds to follow suit, pushing the greenback through support at its 100-day moving average of 72.20 yen.The dollar sank as low as 76.90 yen and came close to a support at a trendline off its Oct. 31 low at 76.70 yen."Exporters were aware that the bullish yen trend hasn't changed and this week's squeeze may have been their only chance to sell at higher levels for another couple of months," said a senior spot trader for a major Japanese bank who did not want to be identified by name.The dollar hit a two-month high of 78.29 yen on Wednesday after Japan reported its first annual trade deficit since 1980, but the rally stalled right below resistance at its 200-day moving average."The yen will now likely get stuck in its familiar tight range, at least for the next few weeks," the trader said.On the back of the move against the dollar, the yen also muscled in on the euro, pulling it 0.5 percent lower to 100.96 yen.CARRY TRADESThe single currency managed to hold onto hefty gains against the dollar, made in the wake of the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep rates near zero for the next three years which encouraged dollar carry trades.The Fed's move pushed the greenback to a five-week low on the euro overnight. The euro traded at $1.3096, on track to be one of the week's best performers with a gain of 1.7 percent. It touched a high of $1.3184 on Thursday but faltered short of major resistance in the $1.3199-1.3237 zone.But analysts thought the dollar unlikely to stay under pressure for much longer at least against the euro."We may see one more round of selling in the dollar, but I think everyone knows that the unresolved problems in Europe will come to the fore sooner or later, so the dollar will likely stay supported longer-term," said Sumino Kamei, a senior currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.Kamei said Greece continued to pose an immediate threat to the euro's recent gains as debt talks between it and private creditors resume on Friday.Greek media reported that debt holders may be ready to accept a yield of 3.75 percent on new Greek bonds after euro zone ministers rejected an offer of 4 percent on Monday.The Fed's decision encouraged the use of the dollar in carry trades and sparked big gains for gold and copper. The dollar index was at 79.41, recovering a little from 79.067 -- its lowest in over six weeks hit on Thursday.It also supported commodity currencies, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars hovering near three-month highs. The kiwi has been a clear outperformer this year with a gain of 5.6 percent, while the Aussie has added more than 3.8 percent.The United States will release GDP numbers later on Friday with forecasts pointing to a 3 percent bounce in the October-December quarter.
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* Negotiations over Greek debt stall but hope for deal still alive* Euro off Monday's 3-week high versus dollar, losses limited* Worries that Portugal could be next candidate for default hamper euroLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The euro slipped from a three-week peak on Tuesday after euro zone finance ministers rejected an offer by private creditors to restructure Greek debt, but hopes for a deal to avert a messy default remained, limiting the common currency's losses.Euro zone finance ministers sent back the Greek debt swap offer, saying the coupon demanded by bondholders was too high. Private creditors say a 4.0 percent coupon is the least they can accept if they are going to write down the nominal value of the debt they hold by a half.The euro slipped as low as $1.2987 in Asia before steadying at $1.3025, close to flat for the day. On Monday, it had jumped more than 1 percent to a high of $1.3053 on the EBS trading platform as hopes of an eventual Greek deal drove a wave of short-covering."I think a deal will eventually be reached on Greece and for euro/dollar this has largely been priced in," said Lauren Rosborough, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale."Short positioning hasn't been taken away in the euro and I wouldn't want to discount a further rally from here but in the medium-term our core view remains for euro/dollar to fall back to $1.17 by mid-year," she added.IMM speculative positioning data shows an extreme short position in the euro, which leaves it vulnerable to pullbacks, but market participants were sceptical over the sustainability of any rallies.The euro's ability to hold its recent gains was undermined by suggestions that Portugal, seen as the second most risky country in the euro zone, could be the next potential default candidate after Greece.Further dousing optimism, Germany denied a report that it was ready to boost the combined firepower of the euro zone's rescue funds to 750 billion euros ($979 billion).Despite the pullback, the euro was still well above its 17-month EBS low of $1.2624 hit on Jan. 13, leading some to wonder if it might have bottomed for now.Resistance was at 1.3077/1.3100, the Jan. 3 EBS high and a 38.2 percent retracement of the November-January slump. But a break above the October EBS low of $1.3145 was still needed to turn the technical picture positive, traders said.Concerns over the fragile condition of the euro zone economy were eased after Germany's manufacturing sector grew in January for the first time since September but the overall economic outlook for the euro zone remained gloomy."We maintain EUR buying is unjustifiable viewed either from a European growth or policy perspective," said currency strategists at Credit Agricole CIB in a note.Against the yen, the euro hit a near four-week high of 100.49 on Monday before steadying at 100.29 in Asia, still well off an 11-year EBS low of 97.04 marked on Jan 16.The euro's retreat helped the dollar index rise off a three-week low of 79.602 hit on Monday to stand at 79.833. Support lies at 79.52, around the Jan. 3 low and the 55-day moving average around 79.57.Against the yen, the greenback fetched 77.04, still tightly wedged in its prevailing trading range between 76.6 and 77.20. Reaction was muted to the Bank of Japan's widely expected decision to hold policy steady at its regular meeting, as well as cut its economic forecasts.Waning risk appetite also pressured commodity currencies, with the Australian dollar slipping 0.4 percent to $1.0485, off a 12-week peak of $1.0574 set overnight.Investors also awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy meeting that starts later on Tuesday.While no policy change is expected, the Fed will likely show that its policymakers do not expect to start hiking interest rates again until the first half of 2014, more than five years after chopping them to near zero, a Reuters poll of leading Wall Street economists showed.Any signs that rates will stay lower for longer than expected could pressure the greenback.
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* Euro rises to $1.2998 vs dollar * Hopes rise before euro zone finmin meeting on Greece * Dollar dented ahead of FOMC meeting * Australian dollar hits 11-week high vs U.S. dollar By Jessica Mortimer LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The euro hit its highestlevel in nearly three weeks against the dollar on Monday ontentative optimism that Greece will cut a deal with itscreditors on a debt swap and avoid a chaotic default. Market players were looking to a euro zone financeministers' meeting on Monday when ministers were due to decidethe terms of a Greek debt restructuring they would be ready toaccept in order to pave the way for a second bailout package forAthens. However, the single currency was still vulnerable to renewedweakness as uncertainties remained about the outlook for Greeceand other highly indebted euro zone countries. Private creditors said on Sunday they had come to the limitsof what losses they could concede, putting the ball in the courtof the European Union and the IMF. The euro was supported by investors taking profit on shortpositions. Data showed speculators boosted net euro shortpositions to a fourth straight record in the week to Jan. 17. The euro was up 0.4 percent at $1.3001, its strongestsince early January. Traders cited demand from Middle Eastaccounts that lifted the currency through reported offers at$1.2950. "There is some focus on the record short euro positions ...and a potential that the euro could go above $1.30 if there is apositive response to the Greek debt talks," said RBS currencystrategist Ankita Dudani. "The likelihood is that the talks will converge somewherewhere a deal is still voluntary." Resolving the issue of a Greek debt swap is key to puttingAthens' debt on a sustainable path and avoiding a chaoticdefault that could threaten the whole currency bloc. Markets had hoped for an agreement over the weekend, andanalysts said they were still betting on a deal, leaving roomfor disappointment. "It is uncertain what will happen with the restructuring ofGreek debt, and after that there will be tough negotiations withthe EU and the IMF about the next financing facility," saidNiels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen. "The major risk to euro/dollar is to the downside,especially after the small bounce last week which took out someof the riskier short positions." The euro was not expected to sustain a move above $1.30 andwas still seen at risk of testing a 17-month low of $1.2624 hitearlier this month. Traders said a clear break below $1.2870-80could see major support at $1.2800-10 tested. DOLLAR DIPS For the wider market, the Federal Reserve's two-day policymeeting starting on Tuesday will be the major event. Although nopolicy change is expected, the Fed could take the historic stepof announcing an explicit target for inflation as part of itsnew communication strategy. Traders said wariness ahead of this meeting and expectationsof a continued easy monetary policy was helping to weigh on thedollar, pushing the dollar index below the 80.0 level. Itwas last down 0.4 percent at 79.902. The Australian dollar hit an 12-week high versusthe U.S. dollar at $1.0558, with investors favouring thehigh-yielding currency and the sound fundamentals of theAustralian economy. The euro was up 0.4 percent against the yen at 99.88 yen, taking it close to last week's peak around 100.33. The euro could see choppy trading early this week, with lowvolumes exacerbating volatility, as many Asian centres includingChina, Hong Kong and Singapore are closed for the Lunar New Yearholidays.
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